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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Guidance consensus continues to indicate a broad upper trough
progressing into the West early next week, and then reaching the
central states around mid-week. Nevertheless, 00Z ensemble spread
remains large with both the degree of trough amplification and
spatiotemporal details. The GEFS has trended towards less
amplification over the West, instead favoring later over the Upper
Midwest. The ECMWF ensemble mean favors greater amplification over
the West, which is supported by its deterministic parent and
UKMET/CMC guidance. Run-to-run continuity is poor with the
degree/location of cyclogenesis east of the Rockies.

With greater confidence in a surface ridge holding across the
northern Gulf, modified moisture return appears more likely to be
limited in the southern to central Great Plains through D5/Tuesday.
The breadth of the warm-moist sector will probably enlarge by
D6/Wednesday, yielding concern for some severe potential over the
south-central states. But given poor predictability of
synoptic-scale details, consideration of an area is premature.