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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL TO NORTH TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening
Friday across parts of south-central to north Texas.

...Texas...
A deep mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to move
north-northeastward from NM into the central High Plains on Friday.
A surface low will move northward from the TX Panhandle vicinity
into southwest KS, as a trailing outflow-reinforced cold front moves
through parts of TX/OK. A surface ridge initially covering parts of
the Plains and Midwest will tend to shift eastward with time, though
the lingering influence of this ridge will tend to limit the
northern extent of more substantial moisture return.  

Extensive convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across
parts of west TX/OK. An isolated severe threat could acco*pany the
storms along the southern periphery of ongoing convection during the
morning, where somewhat more favorable instability will be in place.
Uncertainties remain regarding the northward extent of substantial
destabilization through the day. However, sufficient low-level and
deep-layer shear will support potential for organized cells/clusters
with at least an isolated severe threat. This threat could spread
northeastward across parts of central/north TX through the day,
before a likely weakening trend during the evening as stronger
large-scale ascent lifts away from the warm sector. 

A minor expansion to the Marginal Risk has been made across parts of
TX based on the latest guidance, though uncertainty remains high
regarding the eastern and northern extent of the organized severe
threat, as well as the location of any corridors where a somewhat
greater threat could evolve.

..Dean.. 11/06/2024