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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Tue Nov 05 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN LOS ANGELES AND
SOUTHERN VENTURA COUNTIES...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...Afternoon Update...
Confidence remains high that a strong offshore wind event will
develop across much of southern California beginning early Wednesday
and continuing into Thursday morning. Santa Ana winds with isolated
gusts to 60 mph are possible across Los Angeles and Ventura
counties. These strong winds will overlap with very low RH as low as
8-10% supporting extremely critical fire-weather conditions.

The latest CANSAC WRF also shows strong offshore winds developing
across portions of Orange and San Diego counties Wednesday afternoon
and continuing through early Thursday. While offshore gradients are
not as strong, gusts of 40-50 mph and RH of 10-15% will support
several hours of critical fire-weather conditions amidst dry fuels.
Have expanded the Critical area across all of coastal Orange/San
Diego counties and into portions of the western inland Valleys. See
the prior discussion for more information.

..Lyons.. 11/05/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024/

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level ridge will amplify over the eastern Pacific and CA
coast, as a belt of strong midlevel northerly flow extends from the
Northwest to southern CA. This large-scale pattern will reinforce a
strong surface anticyclone over the Intermountain West, leading to a
robust offshore pressure gradient across southern CA. 

...Southern California...
The offshore pressure gradient will be peaking from the morning into
the afternoon/evening time frame, with most guidance depicting a
LAX-TPH pressure gradient less than -13 mb and LAX-DAG gradient less
than -6 mb -- both indicating a strong Santa Ana event across
southern CA. This pressure gradient, co*bined with the strong
deep-layer northerly flow directed toward the coast, will promote
30+ mph sustained northeasterly surface winds across the typical
wind-prone Santa Ana corridors. Over the wind-prone mountains and
valleys of southern Ventura and northern/northwestern Los Angeles
Counties, gusts of 60+ mph will co*bine with RH decreasing into the
lower teens/single digits for several hours -- leading to extremely
critical fire-weather conditions atop receptive fuels.

...Northern/Central California...
The tightening pressure gradient and strong deep-layer northerly
flow will yield another day of breezy/gusty northerly surface winds
amid low RH across the western Sacramento Valley into the Coastal
Range. Given modestly receptive fuels, elevated to locally critical
fire-weather conditions are expected.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...