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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER FL
KEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A few brief tornadoes will be possible within outer bands of
Tropical Cyclone Rafael, from late morning into the evening
Wednesday across the Keys and the far southern Peninsula of Florida.

...Keys/southern Peninsula of FL...
Latest NHC forecast has Tropical Storm Rafael intensifying to a
hurricane by 12Z Wednesday and moving across western Cuba into the
eastern Gulf through early Thursday. Most 00Z guidance has trended
farther northeast with the attendant belt of stronger low-level flow
relative to 24 hours ago. As such, near-easterly surface winds
veering to south-southeasterlies will yield hodograph enlargement.
This increase should be favorably timed to the diurnal heating
cycle, with peak low-level SRH anticipated during afternoon. Amid
increasingly rich mean-mixing ratios of 17-18 g/kg, deeper outer
band cells will likely rotate across the FL Straits and progress
west-northwest across the Keys and adjacent peninsula. At least a
few waterspouts appear probable and these may move across land as
tornadoes. Overall threat should diminish Wednesday night as
low-level SRH gradually subsides, and deep convection beco*es
confined to the Gulf.

..Grams.. 11/05/2024