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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU EASTWARD ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC...AND ALSO ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday from parts
of Missouri and Arkansas eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys and Mid Atlantic, with damaging wind gusts and isolated hail
possible.  Isolated severe storms over the central High Plains may
produce severe hail and damaging gusts during the afternoon and
evening.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify across the
north-central and northeast CONUS on Wednesday, as multiple embedded
shortwave troughs move from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes
region through the period. In conjunction with this trough, a
surface low is forecast to move eastward from northern Ontario
toward James Bay, as an attendant cold front moves through portions
of the central/northern Great Plains and upper Midwest. 

...Ozark Plateau to the Mid Atlantic...
In the wake of extensive convection during the D1/Tuesday period, a
diffuse surface front is forecast to be draped from near the Ozark
Plateau eastward toward the Mid Atlantic. This front may serve as a
differential heating boundary and focus for renewed storm
development by Wednesday afternoon. Midlevel flow and deep-layer
shear will be strongest from the mid-MS Valley into the OH Valley
and Mid Atlantic, though the coverage of robust convection this far
north remains uncertain, due to potentially limited instability on
the cool side of the boundary. If sufficient destabilization can
occur this far north, a couple of organized clusters and/or marginal
supercells will be possible, posing a threat of damaging wind gusts
and perhaps isolated hail. 

To the south of the surface boundary, scattered thunderstorm
development is expected by afternoon within a very warm/moist and
uncapped environment from northern AR eastward across TN/KY into NC.
Deep-layer shear will be weaker in this region, but may still be
sufficient to support a few loosely organized storm clusters with a
threat of at least isolated wind damage into the early evening. 

...Central Plains...
One or more clusters of storms may be ongoing across western NE and
vicinity Wednesday morning. Steep midlevel lapse rates may support
an isolated hail threat with any such activity. If morning
convection is not overly expansive or persistent, moist low-level
easterly flow north of an outflow-influenced surface boundary will
support weak-to-moderate surface-based destabilization by afternoon.
Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible near the
boundary, and also potentially across the higher terrain of
southeast WY/northern CO. Modest northwesterly flow aloft will
support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for a couple of
organized clusters and/or marginal supercells capable of isolated
hail and severe gusts.

..Dean.. 07/26/2022