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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

Valid 061200Z - 121200Z

A mid-level trough will amplify across the Interior West through
mid-week, before morphing into a cut-off low and ejecting into the
Plains states by this weekend into early next week. As a result, a
surface cyclone will develop over the Plains states late this week
and progress eastward through the weekend while high pressure
overspreads much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. Cool conditions
west of the Rockies, co*bined with widespread rainfall and moist
low-level conditions from the Plains to the East Coast, will foster
mainly quiescent fire weather conditions.

The main concern for wildfire-spread potential will be over
California during the mid-week time frame. On Days 3-4
(Wednesday-Thursday), the western periphery of the aforementioned
mid-level trough will overspread California, promoting deep-layer
northwesterly flow over the northern/central California Valley
region. Meanwhile, surface high pressure over the Great Basin will
encourage a surface pressure gradient across the state. As such, dry
and breezy surface conditions are likely over parts of the
Sacramento Valley, toward the San Joaquin Valley area Wednesday
afternoon, where 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced.
Dry and strong offshore flow is also likely Wednesday evening into
Thursday morning, from the Ventura Valley region to the Laguna
Mountain range. 70% Critical probabilities are in place for Day 3
(Wednesday), where confidence is highest for prolonged strong
offshore winds with low RH.

..Squitieri.. 11/04/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...