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Mesoscale Discussion 2207
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma...northwest Arkansas...and
southwest Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 704...705...

Valid 042054Z - 042230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 704, 705 continues.

SUMMARY...A favorable environment for a few tornadoes exists across
northeast Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas, and southwest Missouri over
the next 1 to 2 hours.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercells is moving through northeast
Oklahoma. Surface winds have backed somewhat ahead of these
supercells as a surface low continues northeast along the frontal
boundary just south of Tulsa. Temperatures have warmed into the
upper 70s with dewpoints in the upper 60 ahead of these storms.
Shear has started to increase over the last hour on the KSRX VWP
with 0-1km SRH around 225 m2/s2 and 0-500m SRH around 150 m2/s2 as
of 2035Z. This increase in shear, co*bined with a pocket of moderate
instability has provided an environment favorable for a few
tornadoes over the next 1 to 2 hours. The greatest threat will be
with any supercells which can avoid interference which in the short
term favors the storm entering southern Cherokee County in Oklahoma.

..Bentley/Hart.. 11/04/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   35259472 35729539 36119566 36699540 37289469 37029366
            36349355 35509400 35179430 35259472