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Mesoscale Discussion 2206
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

Areas affected...The Texarkana region into western Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 041926Z - 042130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe/tornado threat appears to be gradually
increasing from the Texarkana region into western Arkansas. Watch
issuance is expected for western AR, but timing remains uncertain
due to questions regarding short-term storm coverage across the
Texarkana region.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery out of KFSM and KSHV has shown a few
deeper/more robust thunderstorms beginning to develop with transient
mid to low-level mesocyclones across the Texarkana region and across
parts of western AR. Stable billow clouds noted earlier in satellite
imagery have begun to erode as daytime heating and a lifting warm
front promote steady destabilization (MLCAPE up to around 1500 J/kg
per mesoanalysis estimates), suggesting that convection is gradually
beco*ing rooted near the surface. Additionally, the KFSM VWP is
sampling 0-1 km SRH between 150-180 m2/s2, which is adequate to
support a tornado threat with discrete convection. Watch issuance is
expected for portions of western AR where convective trends and
recent high-res guidance suggests a severe/tornado threat is
developing. Further south, weaker forcing for ascent casts some
doubt on thunderstorm coverage for the short term and when watch
issuance will be needed this afternoon/evening (though trends will
continue to be monitored).

..Moore/Hart.. 11/04/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   32639509 33609451 34639445 35179445 35449436 35589409
            35619368 35569329 35459303 35299295 35059293 34649309
            34099330 33459366 32969398 32709418 32519441 32429467
            32399487 32419502 32639509