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Mesoscale Discussion 2202
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0837 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

Areas affected...central/eastern Oklahoma and north Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 041437Z - 041700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe/tornado threat is likely to increase by late
morning.

DISCUSSION...A very moist airmass is present from north Texas to
much of eastern Oklahoma with dewpoints in the upper 60s. This has
already yielded 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE with minimal surface
heating. Given the minimal inhibition (per SPC mesoanalysis and
regional 12Z RAOBs), expect widespread thunderstorm development by
late morning to early afternoon. Moderate instability and strong
shear will support supercells capable of all hazards. Parts of
central and south-central Oklahoma (near the I-35 corridor) have the
greatest uncertainty. Outflow from this mornings storms has advanced
east of I-35 with low 60s dewpoints and northerly/westerly flow.
However, strong, southerly flow is trying to stall this boundary and
lead to northward/westward airmass recovery within this corridor. 

A tornado watch will eventually be needed, but it is unclear whether
the threat will start to increase in the next 1 to 2 hours or closer
to mid-day when the primary ascent overspreads the region. Trends
will be monitored and a watch will be issued when an organized
severe threat appears imminent.

..Bentley/Hart.. 11/04/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33889847 34679833 35399776 36279652 36399579 36329531
            35929498 34839505 34099554 33789591 33519652 33349771
            33369825 33489886 33889847