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Mesoscale Discussion 2198
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0719 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024

Areas affected...Portions of northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 040119Z - 040245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe wind and hail risk may persist for a
few more hours across portions of northwest Texas. The threat should
remain too localized for a watch.

DISCUSSION...A few loosely organized thunderstorm clusters are
ongoing along a trailing northeast/southwest-oriented low-level
confluence zone in northwest TX this evening. Nearby VWP data
indicates around 50 kt of 0-6 km shear oriented parallel to the
boundary, which co*bined with 1500 J/kg MLCAPE will continue to
support loosely organized clusters for the next few hours. Isolated
instances of severe hail (generally 1-1.75 inches) and locally
severe gusts could acco*pany the stronger storms, though the risk
appears too marginal/localized for a watch.

..Weinman/Smith.. 11/04/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   32460068 32830070 33200022 33769940 33989879 33969844
            33769825 33249825 32249971 32200034 32460068