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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are possible today
through tonight over parts of the southern Plains.  Tornadoes,
damaging winds and large hail are possible.

...20z Update...
No changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook with this update.
However, uncertainty lies in a the mesoscale details this evening as
the warm front/remnant outflow drifts northward. Air mass recovery
has been rapidly occurring across southwestern Oklahoma as observed
in observations of theta-e advection from the Oklahoma Mesonet.
Thunderstorms have increased in intensity across northwest Texas
into southwestern Oklahoma near the Red River with occasional
supercell development ahead of the more linear/bowing segments. For
now, the richer SRH remains located along the Red River across the
TX/OK border into southeastern Oklahoma with the main threat
remaining damaging wind and large hail. Though, a tornado or two
remain possible. See MCD2191 for more information.

It is likely the tornado risk will increase through the
afternoon/evening along this corridor with further strengthening of
the low-level jet expected. Ahead of the air mass recovery across
southwestern Oklahoma, elevated storms are ongoing across areas just
north of the DFW metro into south-central/southeastern Oklahoma.
Warm air advection into this region should allow for air mass
recovery and potential for a few lead supercells to develop ahead of
the main line of thunderstorms. These would pose a risk for a few
tornadoes (some of which could be strong). Line embedded tornadoes
will be possible with the main line. Some consideration to extending
the Enhanced northwestward was given, due to some uncertainty on how
far north the wind/tornado threat will extend this evening. For now,
confidence is highest in the highlighted corridor of 10% tornado
risk from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma. See MCD2192
for additional information.

..Thornton/Hart.. 11/03/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024/

...TX/OK/AR/MO...
Thunderstorms have begun to form along the surface boundary over
parts of west TX.  Broken clouds ahead of this activity, along with
dewpoints in mid/upper 60s, will eventually lead to intensification
and an increasing severe risk as a large upper trough digs into NM. 
A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends from north
TX into southeast OK.  It is anticipated that storms to the west
will interact with this boundary through the afternoon and evening,
resulting in a corridor of enhanced risk of bowing/supercell
structures capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. 
Therefore have upgraded that small area to ENH risk.  Recent CAM
solutions suggest storms may maintain severe intensity into
southwest MO and northwest AR late tonight, with a continued risk of
damaging wind gusts.