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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024

Valid 051200Z - 111200Z

A mid-level trough will rapidly deepen across the Interior west by
mid-week, encouraging surface high pressure to build west of the
Rockies. The mid-level trough will then meander over the
Inter-mountain west through the remainder of the week, before
ejecting into the Plains states, encouraging cyclone development and
associated precipitation chances over the Plains/Mississippi Valley.
Overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over most of
the CONUS for the extended period. The one major exception will be
California during the mid-week time frame. 

On Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday), a surface pressure gradient will
beco*e aligned across the state, encouraging downslope northerly
flow over the California Valley regions, and offshore flow across
terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan
area. Despite breezy conditions expected over portions of the
Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valley areas, questions remain
regarding the receptiveness of fuels given recent precipitation,
with medium-range guidance also showing quite a bit of variability 
regarding how low RH will get by afternoon peak heating. While no
Critical probabilities have been introduced for the Days 3-5 period
in northern California, Elevated highlights may be needed by the
Days 1-2 time frame.

A clearer signal for wildfire-spread conditions appears evident in
the medium-range guidance consensus over southern California late
Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. 25+ mph sustained offshore
flow (with higher gusts in terrain-favoring areas) should coincide
with 10-15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Critical
probabilities. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been added to
portions of the Ventura Valley region for Wednesday evening,
where/when confidence is highest for sustained Critical conditions
for several hours.

..Squitieri.. 11/03/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...