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Mesoscale Discussion 2186
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024

Areas affected...Far Northwest TX...Southern/Central/East-Central OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699...

Valid 030637Z - 030830Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for all severe hazards, including a tornado or two,
will continue from far northwest Texas across southern and central
Oklahoma. Convective trends are being monitored across east-central
Oklahoma for potential watch issuance later tonight.

DISCUSSION...A large area of showers and thunderstorms continues
from far northwest TX into much of western and central OK. The
strongest storms thus far have been confined to the warm sector that
exists to the east of the more coherent convective line extending
from southwest OK into southwest TX and to the south of a warm front
that extends from roughly southern Kiowa County northeastward
through Cleveland County before turning more eastward in Muskogee
County. This warm front demarcates the more rain-cooled air to the
north, where temperatures in the low to mid 60s, from the warmer,
more modified air to the south, where temperatures are in the upper
60s/low 70s. Widespread rainfall is expected to continue reinforcing
this boundary, with very minimal northward progression anticipated
over the next several hours.

Thunderstorm development will likely continue within this warm
sector, initiated by persistent warm-air advection and supported by
1000 to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Moderate to strong vertical shear (i.e.
effective bulk shear from 40 to 50 kt) will persist across the warm
sector as well, supporting supercell development with any discrete
updrafts that are able to mature. Despite poor lapse rates, vertical
shear is still strong enough to support large hail and strong
downdrafts. Additionally, recent TLX VAD data sampled more than
enough low-level curvature to support tornadogenesis, with the area
along the warm front likely a local maximum in tornado potential due
to increased low-level vorticity. Primary factor limiting a greater
tornado risk is potential for storm interaction.

Some severe threat may extend into more of east-central OK later
tonight. Currently the airmass over this region is less buoyant, and
updrafts have not been able to mature.  However, some increase in
buoyancy is possible and convective trends being monitored for
possible watch issuance.

..Mosier.. 11/03/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   34829942 35699698 35849509 34339539 33189951 34829942