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Mesoscale Discussion 2185
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0830 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024

Areas affected...Portions of the Texas South Plains...Northwest
Texas...and southwest Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 030130Z - 030400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Portions of the Texas South Plains, northwest Texas, and
southwest Oklahoma are being monitored for increasing severe
thunderstorm potential during the next few hours. It is still
unclear if a watch will be needed.

DISCUSSION...Along and north of an outflow boundary extending from
north-central TX into the southern Permian Basin, reduced convective
development on the backside of an earlier midlevel wave is leading
to gradual air mass recovery. During the next few hours, the
low-level jet will ramp up across the region in response to ascent
in the left exit region of a subtropical jet overspreading the area.
The associated deep-layer ascent and low-level warm advection atop
the cold pool will support another uptick in convective development
over the next few hours. Enlarging hodographs (40-50 kt of effective
shear) with ample low-level clockwise curvature will conditionally
support semi-discrete supercell structures initially. If these
storms can root at the surface, all hazards (including brief
tornadoes) will be possible. 

With time, the strengthening ascent amid deep moisture and minimal
inhibition should promote numerous regenerative thunderstorms,
leading to uncertainty in the overall severe risk (given a mixed
mode). However, the aforementioned shear profiles will still
conditionally support embedded supercell structures, and the
low-level jet could allow for upscale growth/cold pool organization
with time. 

It is still unclear if the overall severe risk will warrant a watch,
though convective and environmental trends are being monitored.

..Weinman/Hart.. 11/03/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   33860165 34449985 34799906 34809850 34619794 34069783
            33409811 32659979 32440060 32410138 32640176 33500197
            33860165