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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Desert
Southwest on Sunday, as the exit region of a broad mid-level jet
overspreads the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the system, a
moist airmass will likely be in place. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop within this moist airmass Sunday afternoon as
instability increases during the day. Surface dewpoints in the 60s
F, low-end moderate instability and moderate to strong deep-layer
shear should support severe thunderstorm development Sunday
afternoon and evening. The greatest severe potential is expected
from north Texas northward into south-central Nebraska, where large
hail, severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat will be
possible. 

On Monday, the trough is forecast to move into the southern High
Plains, as a 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet translates through the
eastern part of the system. Ahead of the trough, pockets of moderate
instability are forecast to develop across a moist airmass during
the day. Thunderstorms that form in the afternoon across the western
part of the moist sector are expected to have potential for large
hail and wind damage.

...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8...
From Tuesday to Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move
quickly eastward across the northern U.S., as a cold front advances
southeastward across the eastern third of the U.S. Warming surface
temperatures ahead of the front should result in scattered
thunderstorm development each afternoon and evening. The greatest
severe threat could be on Tuesday in the lower to mid Mississippi
Valley near the entrance region of the mid-level jet. The severe
threat could re-develop ahead of the front on Wednesday and
Thursday. However, instability is forecast to be weak suggesting
that any severe threat should be marginal.