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Mesoscale Discussion 2173
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0900 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Areas affected...western and central Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 310200Z - 310330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A maturing QLCS and more isolated convection ahead of it
are evolving across eastern KS and southwest MO. The risk for
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes should increase this evening.
A new WW may be needed, but the eastern extent remains unclear.

DISCUSSION...As of 0150 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery
showed the QLCS over eastern KS and far western MO has increased in
organization and intensity this evening. With multiple embedded
bowing segments, several damaging wind reports and measured severe
gusts have been reported so far. Storms should approach the eastern
edge of WW 659 over the next 1-2 hours. The environment downstream
across central MO is unstable, but buoyancy decreases with eastern
extent. Strong deep-layer shear of 50-60 kt remains in place
supporting storm organization.

This could support a risk for damaging winds across central MO this
evening, particularly with the southern half of the QLCS. Low-level
shear is also strong beneath the core of a 50 kt low-level jet.
Isolated mesovortex tornadoes will be possible with the stronger
bowing segments. The primary uncertainty remains the limited
buoyancy with northeastward extent. Recent HRRR guidance suggests
the QLCS will remain fairly well organized to continue posing a
severe risk into south-central MO. Given the potential for a
continued severe threat a new WW is being considered.

..Lyons/Hart.. 10/31/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TSA...

LAT...LON   36549440 37679430 38379397 39209340 40029285 40419257
            40669198 40509162 40219148 39929143 39649137 39109143
            38369171 37349204 36829234 36579273 36499333 36509392
            36529423 36549440