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Mesoscale Discussion 2166
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Areas affected...southern Kansas and northwest/central/northern
Oklahoma.

Concerning...Tornado Watch 694...

Valid 302045Z - 302215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 694 continues.

SUMMARY...The large hail/severe wind threat is expected to continue
through the afternoon as supercells move across northwest Oklahoma
and into southern Kansas. The tornado threat is expected to increase
this evening.

DISCUSSION...Supercells have developed along the dryline in western
Oklahoma. Thus far, one measured wind gust of 70 mph has been
observed with MRMS MESH suggesting around 1 to 1.25 inch hail. As
these supercells mature, expect the threat for large hail and severe
wind gusts to continue. Low-level shear is quite weak this afternoon
(60-70 m2/s2 0-500 SRH per VNX VWP), but is forecast to increase
substantially after 22-23Z as the low-level jet strengthens. During
this time is when the greatest tornado threat is anticipated.
Eventually, expect storms to congeal into a squall line with severe
wind and a few embedded QLCS tornadoes as the primary threat.

..Bentley/Gleason.. 10/30/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...to*...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   35059955 36819900 37909829 38429790 38619757 38649711
            38519651 37559635 35999661 35249716 34789802 34689863
            35059955