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Topic: SPC Oct 30, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook (Read 20 times) previous topic - next topic

SPC Oct 30, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC Oct 30, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

[html]SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
     
Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook 
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms capable of producing marginal hail are expected
to develop Friday night over the southern High Plain region.

...Synopsis...
Amplification of the upper flow field across the western and central
U.S. is forecast, as mid-level short-wave energy on the western side
of a low near Vancouver Island digs south-southeastward across the
eastern Pacific toward California.  This will result in
amplification of cyclonic flow over the West and, in response,
increased ridging/anticyclonic flow over the central states. 

At the surface, high pressure will prevail in the wake of a cold
front expected to move eastward across New England through the day,
while trailing west-to-east across the Carolinas and Gulf Coast
States, and into the southern Plains.

Meanwhile over the West, a cold front is forecast to advance across
the northwestern states and eventually into the Great Basin, in
response to the digging upper system.

...Southern High Plains...
Development of scattered/elevated storms is expected overnight
across the southern High Plains area, within a zone of low-level
warm advection near and north of the remnant surface baroclinic
zone.  Rather steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE,
while moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will allow sufficient
cloud-layer shear for a few stronger updrafts.  This suggests
potential for hail near or in excess of severe levels with these
potentially stronger storms.

..Goss.. 10/30/2024


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Source: SPC Oct 30, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_1930.html)