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Mesoscale Discussion 2163
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Areas affected...Western/northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 301815Z - 301945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...There is an increasing threat for supercells this
afternoon across western/north-central Oklahoma and southern Kansas.
These storms will have a threat for large hail and a few tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Some type of impulse triggered some elevated
thunderstorms across southern Kansas this morning. In the wake of
this activity, subsidence has resulted in clearing and significant
surface heating across western Oklahoma and southern Kansas. In
addition, low-level moisture advection has increased dewpoints to
64-67F ahead of the dryline as far north as Reno and Harvey Counties
in Kansas. SPC mesoanalysis currently suggests around 1000 to 1500
J/kg MLCAPE and minimal inhibition. Continued surface heating and
mid-level cooling may allow for some additional destabilization
later this afternoon. Current visible satellite shows deepening
cumulus along the dryline from Harper County, Oklahoma to near
Childress, TX. Expect initial strong/severe storm development near
the triple point in northwest Oklahoma/southern Kansas where forcing
is strongest. Eventually expect additional development southward
along the dryline to near I-40 in Oklahoma. These storms along the
dryline will have greater potential to remain discrete for a few
hours given the more favorable boundary orientation. At this time,
the most favored solution is a more linear wind/QLCS tornado threat
along the cold front in Kansas with a more discrete hail/strong
tornado threat associated with supercells in northern Oklahoma and
southern Kansas. Based on current trends, a tornado watch will
likely be needed soon.

..Bentley/Gleason.. 10/30/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   36549670 35609744 35309849 35279969 35899975 36769972
            37569937 38359811 38599710 38119665 36549670