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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest
on Saturday, as southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the
Rockies and Great Plains. A moist airmass will be in place over much
of the southern and central Plains. Along the western edge of the
moist airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop from
eastern New Mexico into west Texas. Thunderstorms that develop along
and near this instability axis will have a chance to be severe.
Supercells could produce large hail and isolated severe wind gusts.

On Sunday, low-level moisture advection is expected to continue over
much of the Great Plains, as the upper-level trough moves across the
Desert Southwest. Model forecasts are in reasonably good agreement,
with an axis of moderate instability developing Sunday afternoon
from northwest Texas into western and central Oklahoma northward
into Kansas. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse
rates should support supercell development, with a potential for
isolated large hail and wind damage. The threat should persist into
the evening as scattered severe storms move eastward across the
southern and central Plains.

On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move through the
southern High Plains, as an 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet ejects
northeastward into the southern and central Plains. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop along a corridor of weak instability from
central and north Texas northeastward into the Ozarks. Moderate
deep-layer shear near the instability axis should support a severe
threat during the afternoon and evening, with damaging wind gusts
and isolated large hail as the primary threats. At this time, the
timing of the ejecting mid-level jet, and magnitude of instability
remain too uncertain to issue a threat area.

...Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8...
The upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward
into the Great Lakes region on Tuesday, as mid-level flow remains
southwesterly across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form Tuesday afternoon
ahead of a cold front from the lower to mid Mississippi Valley
north-northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. On Wednesday, the
front is forecast to move southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys, suggesting the potential for isolated severe thunderstorms
would be greatest from Kentucky southwestward into western Tennessee
and northern Mississippi. However, spatial and magnitude uncertainty
are substantial at this range.