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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms with hail and strong wind gusts, will
be possible Tuesday night from the central Plains
north-northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley.

...Central Plains/Mid Missouri and Upper Mississippi Valleys...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert
Southwest on Tuesday. Southwesterly mid-level flow will be located
between the western U.S. trough and an eastern U.S. upper-level
ridge. This will help to maintain a broad belt of strong low-level
flow across the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. By Tuesday
evening, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the 60s F along a
narrow corridor from the central Plains into the mid Missouri
Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward
into the central Plains, as a low deepens in southwestern Nebraska.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the front from the
evening into the overnight period as large-scale ascent increases
ahead of the approaching trough.

NAM forecast soundings ahead of the front from eastern Nebraska
northeastward into southern Minnesota have 0-6 km shear steadily
increasing from the evening into the overnight, with 0-6 km shear
peaking in the 60 to 70 knot range late Tuesday night. Instability
is also forecast to increase Tuesday night, with MLCAPE reaching the
500 to 750 J/Kg range. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to reach
7 C/km in some areas. The environment should support isolated
supercell development with a potential for hail. Storms that develop
behind the front will likely be elevated. Isolated surface-based
storms are also expected to the east of the front, where a few
marginally severe wind gusts may occur. The limitation for this
scenario is that much of the convective development is expected to
take place overnight, when thermodynamics will not be as favorable.
This may keep any severe threat localized and marginal.

..Broyles.. 10/27/2024