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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight.

...20Z Update...
The only change with this update was trimming the General
Thunderstorm area behind the front in the Southeast. Similar to
previous thinking, locally strong gusts could acco*pany a small
multicell cluster tracking southeastward across western NC into
northwestern SC this afternoon. However, this activity has remained
shallow owing to marginal instability, and the risk of
severe-caliber gusts still appears too low for probabilities.

..Weinman.. 10/26/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Ongoing isolated thunderstorms across AR into TN are occurring
along/near a weak surface front. Mean large-scale troughing is
present over the eastern CONUS, with nebulous/weak large-scale
ascent over the Southeast. 12Z soundings from LZK and BNA show a
stable layer/inversion in the 580-540 mb layer, which is hindering
MUCAPE to some extent. Even so, isolated thunderstorms should
continue along the surface boundary through the afternoon as daytime
heating occurs from parts of the lower MS Valley into the Carolinas.
Weak instability and modest deep-layer shear should limit updraft
intensity/organization, although occasional gusty winds may occur
with convection over the western Carolinas as low-level lapse rates
gradually steepen through the afternoon with robust diurnal heating.
Still, the overall threat for organized severe thunderstorms appears
low across the Southeast today.

Low-topped convection should also move inland across parts of the
Pacific Northwest late tonight into Sunday morning as an upper
trough approaches this region. Isolated lightning flashes may occur
with some of this activity as mid-level temperatures gradually cool,
supporting weak MUCAPE.