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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A mid/upper trough will progress eastward from the western U.S. to
the Upper Midwest Days 4-7/Mon-Thu. As this occurs, a belt of strong
mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the
southern/central Plains to the upper MS Valley on Day 5/Tue, and
much of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Day 6/Wed. In
response, a series of surface lows will migrate across the central
Plains to the upper Great Lakes on Days 5-6/Tue-Wed. Increasing
southerly low-level flow will transport 50s to possibly low 60s F
dewpoints northward across the central/southern Plains to the
Mid/Upper MS Valley during this time. Thunderstorm potential will
increase on Day 5/Tue in this warm advection regime ahead of the
trough, and into Day 6/Wed as a cold front is forecast to progress
eastward over the central CONUS. Given strong deep-layer
southwesterly flow and increasing boundary-layer moisture to aid in
destabilization, some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible.
However, capping may preclude a greater severe risk on Day 5/Tue as
midlevel temperatures are forecast to be fairly warm. By Day 6/Wed,
strong large-scale ascent may be lifting into the Great Lakes/Canada
and out of phase with better low-level moisture and modest
instability. Given uncertainty, will not introduce any 15 percent
delineations at this time, but outlook areas may be needed in
subsequent outlooks for parts of the central Plains to Upper Midwest
vicinity around Days 5-6/Tue-Wed.

Toward the end of the period, another upper shortwave trough may
eject from the western U.S. into the Plains. However, large spread
in timing and position of this feature is resulting in low
predictability from Day 7/Thu and beyond.