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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail (up to 1-1.75 inch diameter) and strong wind
gusts (around 50-60 mph) will be possible from eastern Kansas into
northern Missouri and parts of Iowa this evening into early tonight.

...Eastern Kansas into Missouri and Iowa...
A shortwave trough over WY/CO will continue eastward across the
central Plains through this evening, eventually reaching the mid MS
Valley by early Friday morning. Related cyclogenesis across the
central High Plains will lead to a consolidated surface low over the
mid MO Valley this evening, with a cold front extending
southwestward from the low across KS. A warm front should also be
located over northern MO. Shallow low-level moisture, characterized
by generally upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints, will be present across
the warm sector from eastern KS into MO by late this afternoon.

With the late arrival of large-scale ascent associated with the
shortwave trough, most guidance continues to show convective
initiation occurring around 00Z, beginning in eastern KS and
vicinity. Up to 750-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE should be present across
this area, with robust daytime heating aiding in the development of
steep low-level lapse rates. Initial development may be briefly
supercellular, as 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear supports updraft
organization. Severe hail up to 1-1.75 inches in diameter will be
possible with this initial activity, before a quick mode transition
to more linear structures occurs along the cold front through the
evening. Isolated strong to severe gusts (around 50-60 mph) may
occur so long as thunderstorms remain surface based, before
convection tends to beco*e elevated with eastward extent into MO
later this evening.

Isolated hail may also occur this evening into the early overnight
hours across parts of IA and northern MO, along/north of the warm
front in a low-level warm advection regime. Sufficient MUCAPE and
deep-layer shear should be present for robust updrafts, although it
remains unclear whether supercells will be able to maintained for
more than an hour or two. Given continued uncertainty in the number
and longevity of surface-based supercells across eastern KS into
northwest MO this evening, have opted to maintain the Marginal Risk
with this update.

..Gleason/Thornton.. 10/24/2024