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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

Valid 241700Z - 251200Z

An Elevated area was added for portions of northeast Colorado. RH
values are already around or below 20% in this area with wind gusts
of 15-40 mph. Showers are developing over the northern Front Range
along the CO/WY border but the Elevated area is south of these
showers where the greatest overlap of strong west-northwest winds,
low RH, and dry fuels should materialize. Otherwise, the forecast
remains on track and please see the previous discussion.

..Nauslar.. 10/24/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024/

...Synopsis...
Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across portions of
the Southern Plains this afternoon within a relatively dry return
flow regime. Elsewhere, locally elevated fire weather conditions may
develop across portions of southern New England into the
Mid-Atlantic region.

... Southern Plains ...

A weak frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate in response to lee
cyclogenesis. The result will be strong, gusty southerly surface
winds in the presence of near-record high temperatures. Although
model forecasts suggest relative humidity will only fall into the
upper 20s to low 30s, the co*bination of ongoing drought and
receptive fuels should more than co*pensate. Additionally, surface
moisture appears to be rather shallow and may be susceptible to
mixing out. If this happens, relative humidity may be considerably
lower than forecast, resulting in an increase in potential for
extreme fire behavior. 

... Southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic Region ...

Strong, gusty winds will develop ahead of a surface trough. Warm
afternoon temperatures will allow minimum relative humidity to fall
into the 30s and 40s -- locally lower. The result may be a couple of
hours in the afternoon with locally elevated fire conditions.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...