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Mesoscale Discussion 2156
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0535 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024

Areas affected...Parts of southwest/south-central NE into
west-central KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 692...

Valid 212235Z - 220000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 692
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a
tornado will continue into early evening.

DISCUSSION...Strong storms have developed from
southwest/south-central NE into north-central KS, immediately to the
east/northeast of a co*pact mid/upper-level cyclone. A narrow zone
of modest instability (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) remains in place
along/east of a dryline, with sufficient deep-layer shear for storm
organization. Cool temperatures aloft will continue to support a
threat of sporadic hail with any marginal supercell structures,
along with potential for isolated strong to severe gusts. A tornado
also cannot be ruled out, both with any persistent supercells within
the narrow warm sector, and also in closer proximity to a weak
surface low from northwest KS into southwest NE, where there is some
overlap between ambient surface vorticity and steeper low-level
lapse rates/buoyancy. 

Farther south into south-central KS, deep convection has struggled
to mature thus far. However, cumulus has increased over the last 
hour, and a narrow zone of near 60 F dewpoints is supporting locally
greater buoyancy (with MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg). A supercell or
two could evolve within this region into early evening, with some
threat for hail, localized severe gusts, and a tornado. 

Farther east, elevated convection continues to develop near the
eastern edge of WW 692. Continued moistening above the surface will
maintain MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg, and an isolated hail threat could
eventually spread east of WW 692 with time, though it remains
uncertain if any watch expansion to the east will be needed in the
short term.

..Dean/Guyer.. 10/21/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...to*...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   40730009 40589942 40399862 40029808 39209786 37819801
            37249834 37109876 37099921 37139960 37869929 38279932
            39049996 39810067 40360084 40730009