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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough is forecast to be over western IA early Tuesday
morning before continuing northeastward throughout the day across
the Mid/Upper MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes and beco*ing absorbed
in the stronger westerlies. Isolated to widely scattered elevated
thunderstorms are possible Tuesday morning ahead of this wave across
the Mid MS Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, which should temper
updraft strength in most of these storms. However, relatively cool
mid-level temperatures and enhanced mid-level flow could result in
enough buoyancy and shear for a few instances of small hail.

Another shortwave trough is expected to progress through the
Canadian Prairies on Tuesday. This shortwave is expected to amplify
considerably as it moves into far northwestern Ontario. By 12Z
Wednesday, this shortwave is expected to extend from the Hudson Bay
through western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A surface low will
precede this system, with an attendant cold front pushing
southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes.
Low-level moisture in the vicinity of this front will be minimal,
but increasing mid-level moisture coupled with cold mid-level
temperatures could still promote enough buoyancy for a few deeper
updrafts capable of producing lightning from northern MN into far
northern WI and western upper MI. 

Lastly, a thunderstorm or two appears possible across southern
portions of far west TX/TX Big Bend vicinity Tuesday afternoon.
Here, some airmass destabilization appears possible amid strong
heating, and there could be just enough low-level convergence for
convective initiation. Overall coverage in this area is currently
expected to be less than 10%.

..Mosier.. 10/21/2024