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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe hail will be the main threat with thunderstorms over eastern
Oklahoma and the Ozarks region into the lower Mississippi Valley,
this evening and tonight.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, a long, west/east-oriented trough will extend
across southern Canada.  Attached cyclones are located over southern
BC and northern ON near Lake Superior.  The BC low temporarily will
retrograde a short distance offshore, as the ON low moves
northeastward toward James Bay.  This will result in a continued
broad fetch of essentially zonal flow over most of the CONUS, with
only very weak/embedded perturbations.  One of those weak shortwave
troughs is evident in moisture-channel imagery over the eastern
UT/western CO region.  With ambient height rises forecast, this
perturbation should weaken over time as it moves eastward to the
southern High Plains by 00Z, and to northern OK by 12Z tomorrow.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front across northern IL,
northwestern MO and northeastern KS, beco*ing quasistationary
west-southwestward go a low over southwestern KS.  This boundary is
expected to move southward as a cold front across the Ozarks, much
of OK and the TX Panhandle through the period, as the low redevelops
southeastward by 12Z over the Red River region of south-central
OK/extreme north-central TX.  A marine/warm front over coastal
LA/southeast TX and south-central TX bounds the northern part of a
maritime/tropical air mass with upper 60s to mid 70s F surface
dewpoints observed this morning over deep south TX to the upper TX
Coast.  This boundary is forecast to move northward and beco*e
diffuse today, amidst a broad low-level warm-advection regime.  As
moisture returns northward through central/eastern portions of TX/OK
and the Arklatex region toward the Ozarks, a dryline will beco*e
better-defined across west-central/northwest TX into western/central
OK, intersecting the cold front over north-central OK around 00Z.

...Eastern OK/Ozarks region to lower Mississippi Valley...
Thunderstorms should form late this afternoon near or north of the
northern front, over the Ozarks region and/or northeastern OK,
beco*ing more intense and numerous this evening as convection moves
east-southeastward to southeastward across the outlook area.  Large
hail is the main concern, and some of the hail may beco*e
significant and especially damaging, at 2+ inches in diameter. 
Isolated damaging gusts also may occur. Tornado potential is
non-zero, but marginal and very conditional, given the early stage
of return flow (lack of more-robust moisture and of lower LCL).  The
dryline itself should stay capped along the great majority if not
all) of its length in OK/TX.

With height rises forecast (even ahead of the weak mid/upper
perturbation), large-scale support other than warm advection will be
modest at best, and the bulk of activity may hold until after dark
as moisture content increases below LFC.  A co*bination of theta-e
advection and diurnal heating will destabilize the low levels
throughout the day, beneath an inversion later at the foot of an EML
evident in morning RAOBS to the west and southwest.  The cap should
weaken through late afternoon to around 00Z, fostering the
development of a 1000-1500 J/kg peak MLCAPE corridor (locally/
briefly higher) from south-central to northeastern OK.  Steepening
low-level lapse rates and some vertical mixing will lead to high-LCL
well-mixed boundary layers suitable for strong-severe gust potential
in any cells that can develop before too much evening near-surface
cooling/stabilization occurs to substantially inhibit such gusts
from reaching the surface.

However, the greater threat (especially with any relatively discrete
activity) will be severe and locally significant/damaging hail. 
Wind profiles favor supercell potential to optimize updraft strength
in favorable hail-growth layers, as flow veers with height and
effective-shear magnitudes co*monly attain the 50-65-kt range. 
Lingering dryness in the subcloud layer will support evaporative
cooling in downdrafts and maintenance of much of the hail size from
its peak in-cloud growth to the surface.  Severe potential should
peak during the evening, diminishing slowly overnight (and with
eastward extent) as convective mode gets more messy/clustered and
inflow-layer buoyancy slowly weakens (with a deepening near-surface
stable layer).

..Edwards/Smith.. 04/15/2022