Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024

Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NM AND SOUTHEASTERN CO....

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and a couple of tornadoes
will be possible across eastern New Mexico and extreme southeastern
Colorado this afternoon/evening.

...20z...
The previous outlook remains on track with minor adjustments based
on the latest guidance/observations. Severe probabilities have been
expanded slightly north and eastward into parts of southeastern CO
ahead of strong to potentially severe storms developing over
northeastern NM. Some clearing within weak upslope flow across
southeast CO will support slightly greater buoyancy (~1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE) with modestly favorable deep-layer shear for supercell or
organized multicells. The cool temperatures aloft and a favorable
storm mode could support a risk for severe hail with the strongest
storms through the remainder of this afternoon into this evening.
See forthco*ing MCD #2151 for additional info.

Farther south across parts of east-central and southeastern NM,
additional supercells appear likely late this afternoon into this
evening ahead of a weak lee trough and the upper cyclone. More
persistent upslope and clearing should support around 1000 J/kg of
MLCAPE with veering wind profiles. Supercells capable of hail and
perhaps a tornado or two are possible. See the prior outlook for
more info.

..Lyons.. 10/20/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/

...Eastern NM...
Satellite imagery shows a deep and cold upper low over the
Four-Corners region today, with a band of moderately strong
mid-level winds rotating around the low across NM.  Scattered
showers and thunderstorms have been occurring across the mountains
and adjacent plains of NM this morning, with relatively widespread
clouds and limited opportunity for daytime heating.  It appears this
trend will continue through the afternoon across northeast NM, but
eroding low-cloud cover should result in a region of greater
surface-based instability over east-central and southeast NM. 
Morning CAM solutions agree on the development of a few
discrete/supercell storms in this area by late afternoon.  Forecast
soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer
shear, favorable for large hail in the more robust updrafts. 
Low-level winds are backed but not particularly strong, but strong
winds above 2km result in sufficient hodograph curvature for some
concern for a couple of tornadoes - especially in the 00-03z time
period.  Activity may approach the NM/TX border this evening before
weakening.