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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New
Mexico and portions of far West Texas later this afternoon and
evening. Large hail will be the primary threat, though isolated
severe winds and some tornado threat does exist.

...Eastern New Mexico Region...

Notable upper low has settled into AZ late this evening as stronger
mid-level flow translates into the base of the trough. Latest model
guidance suggests this feature will not begin to eject northeast
until later Sunday when 500mb speed max rotates into the southern
Rockies. As a result, not only are height falls not anticipated
across the southern Rockies/adjacent High Plains, but rather height
rises appear likely as this feature gradually fills. Even so,
modest-strong mid-level southwesterly flow will persist across
northern Mexico into eastern New Mexico through the period. Dominant
surface anticyclone over the OH Valley will ensure southeasterly
boundary-layer flow across west TX into the southern Rockies, and
this will maintain moist low-level upslope trajectories (surface dew
points in the 50s).

Latest model guidance suggests strongest boundary-layer heating will
develop across northern Mexico into southwest NM, primarily west of
the San Andres Mountains. Forecast soundings depict weak inhibition
near/west of this higher terrain by 20z. Greatest corridor of
instability should extend across the TX Big Bend into eastern NM,
just east of the highest terrain. Latest thinking is
scattered-numerous thunderstorms will evolve over the mountains, and
within the favored upslope regime. This activity will spread
northeast within the mean flow and supercells are likely. Some
consideration was given to increasing severe probabilities as storm
coverage should be extensive later this afternoon co*pared to Friday
afternoon/evening. Large hail, along with some tornado risk can be
expected. Will maintain MRGL Risk for now, but an upgrade may be
warranted in later outlooks.

..Darrow/Moore.. 10/19/2024