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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across eastern New
Mexico on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level low in the Four Corners region will initially be
moving slowly eastward through the Southwest on Sunday. This feature
will trend more progressive towards Sunday evening into Monday
morning as it ejects into the parts of the central/southern High
Plains. On the western periphery of the Ohio/Tennessee Valley
anticyclone, modest surface moisture will be maintained as far north
as the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles.

...Eastern New Mexico...
Early precipitation/cloud cover is probable in the region,
particularly across northeastern New Mexico. However, some mid-level
dry air is expected to help promote some surface heating in parts of
east-central into southeastern New Mexico during the afternoon.
Mid-level ascent will not be overly strong, especially with southern
extent, but forcing will increase during the evening/overnight.
Terrain will likely be the main focus for initiation until this
occurs. Mid/upper 50s F dewpoints are most probable, though low 60s
F are not out of the question in southeastern New Mexico. MLCAPE of
around 1000 J/kg is possible where the strongest heating occurs.
Long hodographs and 35-40 kts of effective shear will favor
potential for supercells capable of large hail and isolated severe
gusts. Low-level shear will not be overly strong, but should be
sufficient for a risk of a tornado with the most organized
supercells--a risk that will be maximized between 00-01Z.

As forcing for ascent increases in northeast New Mexico, some linear
structures may develop during mid/late evening. These storms could
produce occasional, marginally severe hail and perhaps strong winds.
The overall threat should be more marginal given limited buoyancy.

..Wendt.. 10/19/2024