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Mesoscale Discussion 2148
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0817 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico...Far Southeast Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 190117Z - 190345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue across
parts of northeast New Mexico this evening, and could also affect
far southeast Colorado. Large hail and a few marginally severe gusts
will be possible. Weather watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low
over central Arizona with cyclonic southwesterly mid-level flow
located over the southern Rockies. Large-scale ascent appears to be
maximized over northeastern New Mexico where widely scattered
thunderstorms are ongoing. The airmass across eastern New Mexico is
weakly unstable with the RAP estimating MLCAPE in the 750 to 1000
J/kg range. In addition, forecast soundings in northeast New Mexico
have 0-6 km shear near 40 knots with somewhat steep lapse rates
above 700 mb. This may be enough for a supercell with potential for
large hail. A severe gust or two will may also occur. The severe
threat is expected to remain very isolated this evening.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 10/19/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36780483 35970510 35170528 34770503 34600472 34540426
            34680384 35060354 36180321 36860311 37230328 37420369
            37400403 37270443 36780483