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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across eastern New
Mexico on Sunday.

...Southern High Plains vicinity...

The upper low and attendant trough over the Four Corners region will
progress northeast toward the central Plains on Sunday. Large-scale
ascent will likely remain weak across the area until evening or
overnight when the upper system ejects northeast. Southeasterly
low-level flow will maintain modest moisture across the region.
Ongoing showers and cloudiness will likely preclude stronger
destabilization through the day. However, a narrow corridor of
modest instability and increasing vertical shear may develop across
parts of eastern NM and vicinity. A couple of supercells producing
hail, gusty winds and perhaps a tornado will be possible by early
evening. Given the overall similar pattern and environment to that
of the prior couple of days, a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been
included with the Day 3 update across eastern NM.

..Leitman.. 10/18/2024