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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
For this co*ing Monday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into
the central Plains. Models indicate that a narrow, and increasingly
limited, band of moisture will be present ahead of the trough and
associated surface front. Though thunderstorms are possible in parts
of eastern Kansas with this activity, severe weather potential
appears low at this time.

As the central Plains trough moves east, it is expected to lose
amplitude and eventually phase with a stronger, broader upper trough
moving through the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley region around the
middle of next week. While models begin to diverge on the
upper-level pattern at that time, the general consensus is for a
cold font to push into parts of the southern Plains as well as to
near the Gulf Coast and off the Atlantic Coast. With moisture ahead
of the front still looking limited, severe thunderstorms do not
appear probable along the boundary. Thereafter, surface ridging in
the eastern third of the CONUS, along with another upper ridge over
the Divide, will keep severe weather potential low through at least
the end of next week and possibly into next weekend.