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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AREAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across northern Mid
Atlantic and New England coastal areas this afternoon, primarily
acco*panied by the risk for damaging wind gusts.

...Synopsis...
Lower/mid-tropospheric ridging appears likely to remain prominent
from the subtropical western Atlantic west-northward into the
southern Rockies vicinity through this period.  However, models
indicate that mid-level flow will continue to trend broadly
cyclonic, east of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies into the
northern Atlantic Seaboard, downstream of ridging which may amplify
further within the westerlies, near and inland of the British
Columbia coast.

Within the broad mid-level troughing, a couple of prominent
perturbations are forecast to continue to evolve, with a number of
smaller-scale embedded perturbations.  One may include an elongating
mid-level low east of James Bay toward Newfoundland and Labrador and
the Canadian Maritimes, while another possibly includes a developing
cyclonic circulation digging to the east of the Canadian Maritimes
by 12Z Tuesday.

In association with this regime, an influx of cooler air is already
underway east of the northern Rockies, across parts of the northern
Great Plains into the Northeast.  The leading edge of this air mass
may continue slowly southeast of the lower Great Lakes and St.
Lawrence Valley, across much of the northern through middle Atlantic
Seaboard by late tonight, while the southwestern flank remains
quasi-stationary across parts of the middle Mississippi Valley into
the central Great Plains.

...Northern Mid Atlantic and New England coastal areas...
Stronger daytime heating within pre-frontal surface troughing
appears most likely to beco*e the primary focus for thunderstorm
initiation and intensification today, aided by ascent downstream of
the lead large-scale mid-level trough axis.  It appears that this
probably will remain mostly scattered in nature.  However, despite
generally weak lapse rates, seasonably high moisture content
(supportive of moderately large CAPE), coupled with 30-50 kt
southwesterly to westerly flow in the 850-500 mb layer, will
contribute to a risk for severe storms.  

Isolated supercells are possible initially, but damaging wind gusts 
appear the primary potential severe hazard as heavy precipitation
loading aids downward momentum transfer in upscale growing clusters.
 This may co*mence by early afternoon and continue into this evening
before spreading offshore and/or weakening.

...Lower Missouri Valley...
Convective potential across the region remains somewhat unclear, but
there appears a consistent signal among model output that the
frontal zone will beco*e enhanced across the region by strong
differential surface heating, beneath the remnants of elevated
mixed-layer air.  A narrow plume of seasonably high boundary-layer
moisture content and precipitable water may focus along this
corridor, while a convectively generated or enhanced perturbation
emerges from the higher plains (within the monsoonal regime)
acco*panied by a 30-40+ kt lower/mid-tropospheric speed maximum.  

A similar strength low-level jet may also develop by this evening,
and contribute to an environment at least conditionally supportive
of organized severe convection.  This could include isolated
supercell development initially this evening across parts of
northeastern Kansas into west central Missouri, before convection
grows upscale and perhaps evolves into a forward propagating system
with increasing potential to produce strong surface gusts,
near/north of the Missouri River.

..Kerr/Weinman.. 07/25/2022