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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on
Thursday.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify across the West on
Thursday. Multiple embedded shortwaves will move through the
large-scale trough, with the most significant of these shortwaves
forecast to dig southeastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the
Great Basin and develop into a mid/upper-level cyclone by the end of
the period. Farther east, a mid/upper-level cyclone initially near
the NC/VA coast is forecast to move eastward, with an upper-level
ridge building in its wake from the Great Lakes into the Southeast. 

Rich low-level moisture will remain suppressed from the
central/southern Gulf of Mexico into the FL Keys, in the wake of an
earlier frontal passage. This will generally limit organized severe
potential across most of the CONUS. A broad region from west TX into
the Rockies, Great Basin, Northwest, and possibly parts of the High
Plains will see potential for generally weak convection with
isolated/sporadic lightning flashes. The greatest relative storm
coverage may occur during the afternoon from west TX into the
southern/central Rockies, and later Thursday night across the
southern Great Basin into northern Arizona, in association with the
developing mid/upper-level cyclone.  

...Southern Great Basin into Northern Arizona...
Modest low-level moisture may stream northward from the lower CO
River Valley into northern AZ and the southern Great Basin by
Thursday evening, in advance of the developing mid/upper-level
cyclone and associated surface low and cold front. This gradual
moistening co*bined with cooling midlevel temperatures may support
some instability increase, acco*panied by the potential for at least
isolated storm development through the evening into Thursday night.
Rather strong deep-layer shear will be conditionally favorable for
storm organization, but it remains uncertain if instability will
beco*e sufficient to support any organized severe threat.

..Dean.. 10/15/2024