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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A deep, positively tilted upper-level trough will remain in place
over the central/eastern CONUS on Tuesday, with an embedded
shortwave trough forecast to dig southeastward from the Midwest/Ohio
Valley into the Southeast and Mid Atlantic by Tuesday night. Across
the West, a weak midlevel cyclone over parts of Arizona is forecast
to move little through the period, while a deeper mid/upper-level
trough and embedded shortwaves begin to affect the Pacific
Northwest. Low-level moisture and instability will generally be
limited across the CONUS, with an expansive surface ridge keeping
richer moisture confined to parts of the immediate Gulf Coast and
Florida Peninsula. 

A southward-moving cold front will impinge upon the richer moisture
through the day, but with stronger large-scale ascent displaced well
to the north, thunderstorm potential along the front appears
relatively limited. A storm or two cannot be ruled out across parts
of the north-central FL Peninsula (especially in close proximity to
the east and west coasts), and also across extreme southeast LA, but
coverage is expected to remain quite isolated at best. Isolated
storms will also be possible across parts of the FL Keys and far
southern peninsula, where deeper tropical moisture will be in place.
Some instability will spread southward along the TX Gulf Coast, and
potentially inland into south-central TX, but confidence in storm
development across this area prior to 12Z Wednesday remains low.  

Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be
possible across the Four Corners region, near and northeast of the
midlevel cyclone over Arizona. Cold midlevel temperatures (less than
-10C at 700 mb) will support convection capable of sporadic
lightning flashes in the vicinity of southern Lake Michigan, Lake
Erie, and parts of the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians.
Guidance currently suggests that thunderstorm potential associated
with the Pacific Northwest trough will largely remain offshore,
though very isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out near
northwest WA by the end of the forecast period.

..Dean.. 10/14/2024