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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0416 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024

Valid 141200Z - 201200Z

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough is expected over the eastern CONUS early next
week. Farther west a mid level closed low, under a ridge extending
northeastward into the Canadian Prairies, will begin to migrate east
southeastward near the Four Corners. A cooler air mass at the
surface behind a cold front will enco*pass much of the Great Plains
and Midwest, with relatively light winds present. As the week
progresses, the pattern will shift and beco*e more amplified. An
upper-level Pacific trough will move onshore D5/Wed, as ridging
shifts over the central CONUS. Another surge of cooler air and
northeasterly surface winds will acco*pany this amplification over
the Midwest and Plains early D5/Wed. Later in the day, however,
surface pressure falls in the lee of the Rockies should quickly
co*mence with the approach of the Pacific mid to upper trough. As a
result, strengthening south winds within a dry antecedent air mass
should increase throughout D5/Wed across much of the Plains and
Midwest.

Confidence in the aforementioned pattern materializing by mid week
has increased enough to include a large area of 40 percent
probabilities within the Plains. There's still a bit of uncertainty
regarding minimum relative humidity, but wind speeds certainly
appear high enough for at least widespread elevated conditions over
highly receptive fuels. By D6/Thursday, confidence in relative
humidity remaining low enough across the Plains to support elevated
to near critical fire weather is not as high. However, breezy south
winds will continue to impact the central and southern Plains. If
low level moisture return is delayed or confined, another 40 percent
area could be included in subsequent forecasts across the central
Plains.

..Barnes.. 10/12/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...