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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential continues from the lower Great Lakes
vicinity into St. Lawrence Valley, with the primary threat being
damaging wind gusts.

...Discussion...
Ongoing outlook forecast reasoning and areas continue to reflect
current and anticipated/future evolution of convection and
associated severe risk.  Other than minor line adjustments to
account for convective/frontal advance, no changes appear necessary
at this time.

..Goss.. 07/24/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022/

...Lower Great Lakes and vicinity...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon ahead
of a southeastward-moving cold front. This will be influenced by an
eastward-ejecting shortwave trough over Michigan/Upper Great Lakes,
with corresponding enhancements to forcing for ascent and an
increase in deep-layer wind profiles. Modest low/middle-level lapse
rates will offset favorable low-level moisture enough to keep MLCAPE
maximized at 1000-1500 J/kg in a narrow corridor east of the Lower
Great Lakes, but with 40-50-kt effective-shear magnitudes and
150-300 m2/s2 effective SRH in support of mixed supercell/multicell
modes and possible some bowing segments. Damaging winds will be the
most co*mon hazard, but some hail and/or a tornado risk may also
exist as well.

Farther southwest, stronger heating (especially outside of a
residual cluster/cloud debris across northeast Illinois into
northern Indiana) and higher moisture content will also support
severe storms within a somewhat weaker deep-layer shear environment
across Illinois/Indiana and vicinity. Multicell clusters should be
the most prevalent severe mode with wind damage as the most co*mon
hazard.

...Central/northern Rockies and adjoining High Plains...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this
afternoon, along a lengthy expanse of the interface between the
eastern Rockies front and the High Plains. Activity should move
roughly eastward onto the Plains, with more longevity/persistence
likely in middle and southern segments of the outlook area with the
main severe concern being isolated severe wind gusts.

Diurnal heating will steepen lower/middle-tropospheric lapse rates
in the presence of sufficient/residual low-level moisture advecting
into the region in the post-frontal boundary layer. This should lead
to a well-mixed low-level thermodynamic profile, beneath minimal
MLCINH, with a plume of 500-1000 J/kg peak/preconvective MLCAPE that
generally narrows northward.  Though low-level moisture and theta-e
should be somewhat lower on the northwest end, large-scale ascent
ahead of the northern Rockies perturbation should overlie surface
heating to contribute to very steep low/middle-level
lapse rates. Continued easterly flow co*ponent north of the
front/low should contribute to both favorable storm-relative
boundary-layer winds for activity moving off the higher terrain, and
strong veering of flow with height. Several loosely organized bands
or clusters of convection may aggregate cold pools for a few hours
in support of gust potential. Depending on subsequent mesoscale
trends and convective guidance, some subset of this area may gain
enough spatial certainty to warrant greater probabilities.

...Arizona...
A cluster of storms continues to generally dissipate and move
westward across the southern Arizona desert this morning. A
relatively moist air mass persists across southeast Arizona in its
wake where post-MCS insolation will be strong. Widely scattered
storms should redevelop later this afternoon with slow westward
movement off the mountains/higher terrain. The hot/well-mixed
boundary layer could support some strong/potentially severe-caliber
wind gusts later this afternoon through early evening.