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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST/LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the lower Great
Lakes vicinity into St. Lawrence Valley by late this afternoon, with
a threat for damaging wind gusts and a couple tornadoes.

...Lower Great Lakes and vicinity...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon ahead
of a southeastward-moving cold front. This will be influenced by an
eastward-ejecting shortwave trough over Michigan/Upper Great Lakes,
with corresponding enhancements to forcing for ascent and an
increase in deep-layer wind profiles. Modest low/middle-level lapse
rates will offset favorable low-level moisture enough to keep MLCAPE
maximized at 1000-1500 J/kg in a narrow corridor east of the Lower
Great Lakes, but with 40-50-kt effective-shear magnitudes and
150-300 m2/s2 effective SRH in support of mixed supercell/multicell
modes and possible some bowing segments. Damaging winds will be the
most co*mon hazard, but some hail and/or a tornado risk may also
exist as well.

Farther southwest, stronger heating (especially outside of a
residual cluster/cloud debris across northeast Illinois into
northern Indiana) and higher moisture content will also support
severe storms within a somewhat weaker deep-layer shear environment
across Illinois/Indiana and vicinity. Multicell clusters should be
the most prevalent severe mode with wind damage as the most co*mon
hazard.

...Central/northern Rockies and adjoining High Plains...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this
afternoon, along a lengthy expanse of the interface between the
eastern Rockies front and the High Plains. Activity should move
roughly eastward onto the Plains, with more longevity/persistence
likely in middle and southern segments of the outlook area with the
main severe concern being isolated severe wind gusts.

Diurnal heating will steepen lower/middle-tropospheric lapse rates
in the presence of sufficient/residual low-level moisture advecting
into the region in the post-frontal boundary layer. This should lead
to a well-mixed low-level thermodynamic profile, beneath minimal
MLCINH, with a plume of 500-1000 J/kg peak/preconvective MLCAPE that
generally narrows northward.  Though low-level moisture and theta-e
should be somewhat lower on the northwest end, large-scale ascent
ahead of the northern Rockies perturbation should overlie surface
heating to contribute to very steep low/middle-level
lapse rates. Continued easterly flow co*ponent north of the
front/low should contribute to both favorable storm-relative
boundary-layer winds for activity moving off the higher terrain, and
strong veering of flow with height. Several loosely organized bands
or clusters of convection may aggregate cold pools for a few hours
in support of gust potential. Depending on subsequent mesoscale
trends and convective guidance, some subset of this area may gain
enough spatial certainty to warrant greater probabilities.

...Arizona...
A cluster of storms continues to generally dissipate and move
westward across the southern Arizona desert this morning. A
relatively moist air mass persists across southeast Arizona in its
wake where post-MCS insolation will be strong. Widely scattered
storms should redevelop later this afternoon with slow westward
movement off the mountains/higher terrain. The hot/well-mixed
boundary layer could support some strong/potentially severe-caliber
wind gusts later this afternoon through early evening.

..Guyer/Moore.. 07/24/2022