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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday from portions
of New England to the Mid-Atlantic region.  Damaging gusts will be
the primary severe hazard. Isolated severe storms will also be
possible over portions of the northern and central High Plains
vicinity.

...Synopsis...
Weak flow aloft will prevail over the southern half of the U.S.
Monday, while a belt of enhanced/cyclonic flow resides over the
northern third of the country south of a pair of Canadian upper
cyclones.

At the surface, an arcing front will shift eastward across the
Northeast, southward across the Ohio Valley and central U.S., and
then nearly stationary/backed into the High Plains through the
period.

...New England to the Mid-Atlantic region, and westward into the Mid
South...
As a cold front advances eastward into/across New England and
southeastward across the Ohio Valley during the day Monday,
thunderstorms -- likely ongoing locally at the start of the period
-- are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through late
morning/early afternoon.  The increase -- fueled by a
moist/destabilizing pre-frontal environment -- will be aided by a
belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow spreading across the
area in tandem with short-wave troughing sweeping across the St.
Lawrence Valley through the day.  With a somewhat-more-southerly
co*ponent to the low-level flow, veering and increasing with height
to southwesterly, shear will favor organized storms.  While bands of
convection should beco*e the primary storm mode, updraft rotation in
stronger cells may support risk for a tornado.  Otherwise, damaging
wind gusts will likely be the primary severe risk, along with some
hail potential.  Storms will spread eastward with time in tandem
with the cold-frontal advance, gradually moving offshore but
lingering longest over southeastern New England and the mid-Atlantic
region.

Farther west along the front, into parts of Kentucky and Tennessee,
severe risk should remain more limited, due to weaker flow aloft. 
Still, storms developing along the front will likely be acco*panied
by local risk for damaging wind gusts and/or hail.

...Eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and the Nebraska
Panhandle...
A belt of cyclonic flow aloft will remain across the north-central
U.S. Monday, on the southern fringe of a pair of central Canada
lows.  As weak disturbances move southeastward across the northern
and central Plains vicinity, a frontal wave is forecast to be
maintained over the Nebraska Panhandle vicinity, along front progged
to remain draped from northwest to southeast from the northern High
Plains.

Diurnal heating/destabilization near and ahead of this front/low,
along with focused ascent aided by the passage of the aforementioned
disturbances aloft will likely prove sufficient for isolated
afternoon storm development.  With 25 to 35 kt west-northwesterly
flow aloft atop low-level southeasterlies near and just east of the
front, a few stronger storms may organize, and possibly grow upscale
into a small cluster.  Local risk for a couple of damaging wind
gusts and/or hail warrants maintenance of MRGL risk across this
area.

..Goss.. 07/24/2022