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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN AND EASTERN
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms, possibly including an organized cluster,
may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts across parts of the
lower Mississippi Valley and adjacent Gulf coast vicinity Sunday
afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
Models indicate that the center of a still fairly prominent
subtropical high may shift westward, offshore of the Mexican Pacific
coast to the south of Baja, during this period.  Mid/upper ridging
may build to its north and west, into parts of the Southwest, as the
mid-latitude westerlies undergo considerable amplification across
the eastern Pacific into the Canadian/U.S. Rockies.  This appears
likely to include building mid-level ridging across much of the
Intermountain West and Rockies, while large-scale troughing
continues to evolve across the eastern Pacific.

Downstream of the ridging, a pair of short wave troughs are forecast
to dig to the east of the Rockies.  However, it appears that they
will remain out of phase, with the southern perturbation digging
across the southern Great Plains through the lower Mississippi
Valley, to the south/southeast of the more prominent northern
perturbation digging across the northern Great Plains into the upper
Mississippi Valley by 12Z Monday.  Each may support weak surface
cyclogenesis.  The developing wave associated with southern
perturbation likely will be focused along a consolidating frontal
zone across the lower Mississippi Valley through the eastern Gulf
states, in the wake of a significant mid-level trough more slowly
progressing east of the northern Atlantic coast.

Seasonably moist air will remain confined to areas south of the lead
cold front, and probably to the south of a preceding convectively
generated or reinforced boundary, which may at least initially
extend across southern Georgia and Alabama toward its intersection
with the front near the Ark-La-Tex vicinity at 12Z Sunday.

...Lower Mississippi Valley...
Much like Saturday, the moist boundary layer may contribute to
moderate mixed-layer CAPE with daytime heating, along and south of
the southern-most surface boundary.  It appears that this will
generally extend in a corridor across northern Louisiana through
southern Alabama Sunday afternoon, when forcing for ascent and
strengthening lower/mid tropospheric flow (30-50 kt in the 850-500
mb layer) associated with digging southern perturbation may
contribute to thunderstorm development.  It appears that this may,
at least initially, include a few supercells posing a risk for large
hail and locally strong surface gusts.  One or two upscale growing
clusters may gradually evolve and organize, posing a more prominent
risk for damaging wind gusts while propagating southeastward through
Sunday evening.

..Kerr.. 04/15/2022