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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated tornado threat, associated with Hurricane Milton, is
expected to develop from the Florida Keys this evening northeastward
across parts of the southern Florida Peninsula late tonight.

...Florida Keys/ Western and Southern Florida Peninsula...
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Hurricane Milton to
continue to move northeastward across the southern Gulf of Mexico.
Ahead of the track of Milton, visible satellite imagery shows cold
cloud tops associated with a large area of convection over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. Thunderstorms within this area will move
toward south Florida this evening into tonight. The latest RAP has
moderate instability analyzed from the Florida Keys into far south
Florida, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg
range. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Key West has 0-6 km shear of 30 to
35 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 200 ms/s2. RAP
forecast soundings gradually increase low-level shear as Hurricane
Milton approaches tonight, which should result in an isolated
tornado threat across the Florida Keys and along the southwest
Florida Peninsula coast. As Hurricane Milton moves into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico late tonight, an isolated tornado threat is also
expected to develop across parts of south Florida, as instability
and low-level shear increase. The threat over much of south Florida
is expected to be concentrated after 09Z.

..Broyles.. 10/09/2024