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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida Peninsula as
Hurricane Milton moves through on Wednesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A strong shortwave trough and associated cold mid-level temperatures
are forecast to progress across Ontario, the Great Lakes, and the
Northeast, moving through the base of a large cyclone centered over
western Quebec. To the west of this cyclone, upper ridging will
continue to shift eastward into more of western Ontario and the
Upper Midwest. A weak shortwave trough will likely move within this
broader ridging over the Mid MO Valley. 

While a flash or two is possible within some high-based convection
near the CO/NM border as well as the TX Panhandle/western OK,
overall coverage is currently expected to be less than 10% in these
areas. 

Primary forecast concern for Wednesday is the evolution of Hurricane
Milton, which is currently expected to move across the FL Peninsula
Wednesday evening/night. The airmass across the central/southern FL
Peninsula will likely be characterized by low to mid 70s dewpoints.
This low-level moisture should be sufficient for enough buoyancy to
support some deeper, more persistent updrafts, particularly during
afternoon when some daytime heating is also possible. Wind fields
are also expected to increase substantially during this time. The
resulting co*bination of buoyancy and shear will support the risk
for tornadoes within the convective rainbands of Milton.

..Mosier.. 10/07/2024