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Mesoscale Discussion 2132
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0554 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Areas affected...parts of western New York State and western
Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 689...

Valid 062254Z - 070100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 689
continues.

SUMMARY...A couple of supercell structures will continue to spread
toward the Allegheny Mountains of west central Pennsylvania, but
probably will begin to weaken toward 8-10 PM EDT.  Although some
risk for severe weather may spread east of the current severe
weather watch area, a new severe weather watch may not be needed.

DISCUSSION...An initial, perhaps convectively enhanced, surge of
cool air southeast of Lake Erie is already beginning to stabilize
the narrow pre-cold frontal instability axis now near and southeast
of the lower Great Lakes region.  The east-southeastward movement of
the ongoing convection across the Allegheny Plateau appears to be
outpacing the advection of the instability axis, and it seems
probable that storms will begin to gradually weaken through 00-02Z,
as they acquire more stable inflow.  Until then, however, a couple
of isolated supercell structures may continue to pose a risk for
severe hail and locally damaging surface gusts while approaching the
Allegheny Front.  Although wind profiles are characterized by strong
deep-layer shear and sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs,
the extent of the risk for tornadoes remains more unclear, given
relatively low humidities in the lower/mid troposphere.

..Kerr.. 10/06/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

LAT...LON   42667813 43187712 42917668 42187723 40907844 40147987
            40488109 40998028 41347948 42507818 42667813