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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the middle and upper Ohio
Valley as well across the Gulf Coast Sunday. Severe thunderstorms
are not currently anticipated.

...Middle/Upper OH Valley...
A maturing mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over northwest
Ontario early Sunday morning. A pair of fast-moving, low-amplitude
shortwave troughs will move through the base of this cyclone during
the period, helping induce a more negative tilt while also pulling
the cyclone eastward. 

Primary surface low associated with this system will remain occluded
over Ontario throughout the period. However, a secondary
triple-point low will likely be over central Ontario early Sunday,
with its associated cold front extending southwestward through the
Mid MS Valley. This low is forecast to push eastward across eastern
Ontario during the day, with the  cold front progressing
eastward/southeastward as well. Some low-level moisture return is
anticipated ahead of this front across the middle/upper OH Valley,
although the best moisture will be confined to a narrow axis just
ahead of the front. This buoyancy, coupled with increasing
large-scale forcing for ascent, could contribute to enough buoyancy
for thunderstorm development along and just ahead of the front.
However, the quality of this moisture return and associated buoyancy
remain uncertain, with the veered low-level flow ahead of the front
and narrow character of the warm sector also limiting factors. Low
predictability within this scenario merits precluding introducing
low severe probabilities with this outlook.

...Gulf Coast into the Coastal GA and FL Peninsula...
Easterly/northeasterly low-level flow will persist for another day
across the northern Gulf of Mexico, as a broad area of low pressure
remains in place. Showers and thunderstorms are possible within the
moist airmass, but weak shear should keep storm severity low.

..Mosier.. 10/04/2024