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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024

Valid 021700Z - 031200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING...

The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments
made based on morning observations and latest guidance. 12 UTC 925
and 850 mb analyses continue to show the low-level thermal trough
oriented from southeast WY into the eastern Dakotas - largely
aligned with the surface trough. As such, the warmest/driest
conditions will likely remain offset slightly from the strongest
winds (which are already increasing to 15-20 knots on either side of
the surface trough) through the afternoon, and limits confidence in
the coverage/duration of critical conditions. The Elevated risk
areas were both expanded based on where observations are already
showing dry/windy conditions, and on morning hr** guidance with a
slight bias towards recent HRRR solutions that have accurately
captured morning trends. See the previous discussion below for
additional details.

..Moore.. 10/02/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024/

...Synopsis...
An elongated mid-level jet will extend along the US/Canada border
today. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains
with a weak surface low developing in the central Plains tonight.
Ahead of this front, some dry and breezy conditions are expected
from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to the Upper Midwest. Fuels are
moist from central Kansas southward, but north of this region, fuels
have dried out and some threat for large fire exists. The greatest
change to the prior Day 2 fire weather outlook was the addition of
much of the northern Plains across the Dakotas and into far eastern
Montana. Fuels in this region are very dry, and forecast guidance
indicates 15 to 25 mph winds with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity
are possible across much of this region. 

Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected across southern
Wyoming where fuels are critically dry and sustained winds of 25 to
30 mph are expected, as mid-level flow strengthens and a deeply
mixed airmass permits some of this stronger flow to reach the
surface. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across this
region on this afternoon. Most of this region should experience
Elevated fire-weather conditions, with some critical conditions
across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming where the
Critical delineation is present.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...