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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

...Discussion...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday afternoon across the
central FL Peninsula where a moderately buoyant air mass persists. A
low-amplitude upper impulse will pass to its north across the
Southeast, but deep-layer shear is expected to remain weak. In
co*bination with marginal mid-level lapse rates, the severe-storm
threat appears negligible.

Across eastern NC to far southeast VA, a weakening shortwave trough
will progress across the region and offshore Tuesday evening/night.
Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through the afternoon.

Over the central to lower Great Lakes, a vigorous shortwave trough
will move across ON and the northern Great Lakes. A surface cold
front ahead of this trough will similarly move eastward, reaching
Lower MI to IN by afternoon. With surface dewpoints in the low 60s,
meager surface-based buoyancy should develop ahead of the front. But
warm 700-mb temperatures and weak mid-level lapse rates, especially
with southern extent along the front, suggest instability will
remain limited and thunderstorm coverage will be sparse. With the
bulk of stronger mid/upper flow lagging behind the front, severe
storms are not anticipated. 

Limited mid-level moisture from the Mogollon Rim into southern AZ
may promote very isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon.

..Grams.. 09/30/2024