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Mesoscale Discussion 1564
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

Areas affected...Southern and eastern Ohio into Southwest
Pennsylvania and West Virginia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 490...

Valid 231744Z - 231945Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 490
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging to severe winds will remain possible
through the afternoon hours as an MCS continues to move east.
However, a downstream watch is not currently anticipated given the
overall weakening trends of the system.

DISCUSSION...An ongoing MCS continues to push east/southeast into
eastern and southern OH. In general, satellite imagery and echo top
data all show weakening trends over the past 60 minutes as the
system beco*es increasingly outflow dominant. While a few wind
damage reports have been noted, most surface stations support this
trend with recent observed wind gusts generally in the 30-45 mph
range. Downstream into southwest PA and WV, mostly clear skies ahead
of the line has allowed for MLCAPE to increase to around 2000-2500
J/kg with little inhibition. This is fostering some re-development
along parts of the outflow boundary (new, but isolated, convective
towers are noted in latest IR imagery along the line), and these
storms may continue to support a sporadic wind threat into WV and
PA. Modest deep-layer flow sampled in downstream VWPs is supporting
upwards of 20-25 knots of effective shear, which should limit the
potential for robust storm intensification. Given these
observations, a downstream watch is not currently anticipated,
though trends will continue to be monitored.

..Moore.. 07/23/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...
LMK...

LAT...LON   38718377 39238322 40068221 40718157 41078103 41087904
            40357855 39567866 38837922 37958034 37898227 38028323
            38278388 38718377