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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Valid 291200Z - 051200Z

Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge late this weekend and
into early next week across parts of the northern Rocky Mountains
and central to northern Plains. A low-amplitude upper wave is noted
in mid-afternoon water-vapor imagery over the eastern Pacific. This
wave is expected to amplify slightly as it moves onshore across the
Pacific Northwest by early Sunday and translates east into the
northern CONUS through Monday. Winds will increase through this
period across the northern Rockies and central/northern Plains as an
attendant surface low deepens and migrates east in tandem with the
upper trough. The co*bination of strengthening winds, antecedent dry
conditions, and receptive fuels should support fire weather
concerns. 

...D3/Sunday - Northern Rockies and northern Plains...
Medium to long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the
deepening of a surface low across the northern Rockies and into the
southern Canadian Prairies through the day Sunday. Limited moisture
return into the region will limit any precipitation chances south of
the Canadian border, but the tightening pressure gradient will
bolster surface winds across the region. Latest ensemble guidance
shows reasonably good agreement in 15-25 mph winds both ahead of and
behind the surface trough. Unseasonably warm temperatures will
persist through Sunday afternoon, resulting in afternoon RH minimums
between 15-25%. With ERCs across much of the region above the 90th
percentile (especially across the northern Plains), elevated to
critical fire weather conditions appear likely. Critical risk
highlights will likely be needed across parts of the northern Plains
in subsequent forecast updates as confidence increases that moisture
return within the dry return flow regime will be sufficiently
limited to allow RH minimums in the teens to low 20s.

...D4/Monday - central Plains...
A strong cold front is forecast to push southeast across the
northern High Plains and into the Dakotas and NE through the day
Monday as the surface cyclone pushes east across the Canadian
Prairies. Although cooler temperatures are expected behind the
front, diurnal warming should modulate temperature reductions and
maintain afternoon highs in the 60s. Coupled with an influx of drier
continental air, afternoon RH minimums in the 20-25% range appear
probable. A strong wind signal is noted in most solutions suggesting
that 20-25 mph post-frontal winds are likely with gusts upwards of
30-40 mph possible. ERCs should remain elevated through Monday
afternoon, which will support fire weather concerns. Widespread
elevated fire weather conditions are expected, and critical
conditions appear probable if current RH forecasts remain on track.

..Moore.. 09/27/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...